Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.527173 0.610283 0.701433 0.808710 0.931406 1.067247 1.228937
2025-06-01 0.381739 0.492607 0.626920 0.801104 1.020483 1.287045 1.634912
2025-06-08 0.294319 0.411194 0.563404 0.775101 1.060728 1.431396 1.947393
2025-06-15 0.260464 0.387921 0.563821 0.822481 1.190987 1.694570 2.431835
2025-06-22 0.214457 0.338405 0.518627 0.797195 1.213760 1.809649 2.721658
2025-06-29 0.179657 0.298779 0.480365 0.773945 1.232435 1.915587 3.003185
2025-07-06 0.153169 0.267396 0.449267 0.755676 1.253537 2.023332 3.293361
2025-07-13 0.138592 0.252833 0.442023 0.772810 1.329699 2.219691 3.735343
2025-07-20 0.130282 0.247474 0.448664 0.812540 1.445210 2.487008 4.312691
2025-07-27 0.120653 0.238272 0.447294 0.837772 1.537885 2.723952 4.859559
2025-08-03 0.109746 0.225106 0.437118 0.845799 1.600616 2.914790 5.343415
2025-08-10 0.098819 0.210317 0.422033 0.842730 1.642316 3.071527 5.779498
2025-08-17 0.087843 0.194215 0.403089 0.831264 1.669220 3.207663 6.197430
2025-08-24 0.078553 0.180305 0.386800 0.823189 1.701926 3.357773 6.655749
2025-08-31 0.068633 0.163572 0.362697 0.796493 1.695135 3.432731 6.978637
2025-09-07 0.066812 0.164384 0.374810 0.845108 1.842839 3.814145 7.919455
2025-09-14 0.058820 0.149978 0.352783 0.819163 1.835107 3.891013 8.269666
2025-09-21 0.051992 0.137276 0.332864 0.795306 1.828859 3.969376 8.628040
2025-09-28 0.046350 0.126607 0.316169 0.776560 1.831318 4.064937 9.028348
2025-10-05 0.043687 0.123031 0.315452 0.794141 1.915295 4.337004 9.818588
2025-10-12 0.042622 0.123445 0.324256 0.834908 2.055243 4.739126 10.916833
2025-10-19 0.040731 0.121385 0.326767 0.860797 2.163255 5.080330 11.909147
2025-10-26 0.038045 0.116753 0.322293 0.869032 2.230455 5.336532 12.733555